Confidence Housing Markets

Market timing is a discredited practice in financial markets.

Source:     Hannif Highclass c/o Genie Sabre Realty Inc.
Publish:     Toronto Real Estate Blog

Everywhere, it seems, there are now media stories on the housing bubble and the worsening conditions. Hell… Global TV in Toronto is running bearish stories.

Garth Turner recently noted:

“At some point, which is probably now, all this becomes a self-reinforcing event. Real estate can’t function without investor confidence, and when people perceive that other people are getting freaked at housing risk, it’s over. Market momentum turns negative, sales slump and in due course prices follow.”

This, of course, is of grave concern to the real estate industry.

The last thing they want is for “investor confidence” in housing to wain and for people to bail and wait on the sidelines.

And in what will surely be only the first in a theme of articles on the subject, Canadian Business attempts to address the issue of “Housing markets and market timing” with those contemplating getting out.

Naturally the advice is not to do it:

Market timing appears to be alive and well in the housing sector. Some homeowners have sold their dwellings and taken up renting because they expect prices to fall. Similarly, a number of first-time buyers have delayed purchases in hopes of buying later at lower prices. But speculating on price fluctuations is a tricky art that can end up doing more harm than good.

Ahh yes… staying out of a falling market will do ‘more harm than good’, so don’t do it, okay?

You can see the prevalence of market timing in the housing articles now popular in the media, especially in reader comment sections. A large number of the posters say they are renting in order to avoid price declines. They also express support for price tumbles of as much as 50%, which would allow them to buy back in at cheaply.
A number of these commenters even appear, regrettably, to be trying to encourage a collapse in prices. For example, on one site a poster wrote: “Home prices will follow sales declines. If you own a home and want to get ‘top dollar,’ sell now. Don’t hesitate.”

If you are concerned about the market, buy and hold – don’t bail:

Instead of worrying about market timing, homeowners can stay focused on the long-term tendency of real-estate prices to appreciate and ignore the media noise.

The bottom line, as always, is that it is always a great time to buy real estate.

So what are you waiting for?

POSTED BY:  WHISPERER Email: village_whisperer@live.ca

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Hannif Highclass is a Real Estate Broker (Lic# 4592663) & a Mortgage Broker (Lic# M08007683). Specialties

REAL ESTATE: We are Flat Fee full service Brokerage. Buyers cash back rebate

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